Its been a long long while since my last post, when I really paid attention to what I do. to master myself more than my craft. I have learned a lot through the ups and downs, but definitely more from the downs and now I am still humbled in the face of the market I once though is playground. It made me poor, and more so ah less likeable and pleasant person o my friends and family, that which I regret fully. I shall do something about it.

“you don’t have to make money back the same way you lost it” is a simple piece of advice that had been very useful for me for the last 3 months. could have been in the last 2 years if I followed what ive been told and read before. It doesn’t matter now… what matters is I’m on my way back and go back no more. my discipline will be challenged everyday yet I will fight much as I can… and create a new investing era for me and my family.

so help me God. I love you Glacie. this is for you =)

Its been like years since my last post here. Somehow, my blog is not working.. I didn’t know it would translate to my real trading. And yes, bloodbath it is in Financial markets and I got a big hit (thanks to my leveraging activities), have to be smarter now… or a better term is controlled.

I once read that sometime in the markets, it drops so fast that it doesn’t stop at zero… somewhere deeper taht you really feel the pain! I’ll never forget this now.

Comeback is waiting… FOCUS and control is KEy! =)

Congratulations to the Mavs for winning its first Championship in 3 decades! great 6 games took a lot of people’s focus in the market. Actually, its the only thing keeping me alive in the morning. The market is down anyway on light volume of 3billion a day.

I though now that the finals is over, we can start trading well. The market opened strong and slowly but surely erased its gains and loss 31 points. Selling was across the board and barely anything was spared. the market is now looking at 4,100 as support, if not 4000. Can’t say much now. Everyone seems to just be cutting losses rolling down hence the drop… it may continue for the week. But I’m crossing my fingers. ;p

The market continued to drop, now down by 39 pts to 4,261. The selling was across the board except for the property sector which actually gained 5 pts or .3%. I didn’t have any selling or buying orders today; it’s just one of those days that I don’t think any movement would make much of a difference so i rather do more research and plan for the days ahead. I’m a bit happy though that my heavy loading in the property sector somehow paid off.. well, not actually dropping as much as the market somehow means paying- off to me. (hehe)

As far as the earnings season is concerned, this year’s Q1 results were mixed compared to last years superb growth. The real question is, how does it really affect the market? and market prices?

Energy stocks AP, EDC, FGEN all suffered more than 50% drop in earnings, after the WESM prices dropped form 8.1 to 2.7 from the same period last year. Ap had immediate sell- off, EDC had a slower one, and FGEN is still at its highs. Talk about weird.

RFM, URC, JFC are the most noticeable companies in the food sector. Commodity prices and raw materials rose a lot this year and will affect margins of these 3 companies, hence the drop in their income. All of them also translated to lower stock prices except for URC which is currently approaching its previous high of 46. I’m gussing they are also selling commodities. (hihi)

On rising prices, I’m guessing that mining companies can take advantage selling precious metals at high prices. PX AT NIKL and SCC are leaders in their industry and can be the top gainers for the year, if the current economic conditions continue. I’ll be mixing my portfolio on this stocks for the long term, and hopefully it doesn’t translate to “wrong term”.

MEG FLI VLL ALI- where are we going? how much are we affected? we will soon find out. But I’m betting on you guys.

thanks to MSCI index, it moved JGS and DMC heavily, and ICT to the skies. =)

Yesterday the market went up the 4300 level. I’m merely looking at individual stocks now as the market has been heavily dictated by TEL and with a few blue chip companies. This may be very important to foreign and big brokers but for retail clients like mine, a big percentage gain is all that matters with little attention to which stock. Let me just put in my observation on some stocks and what I could have done, or not.

LR and BEL dropped by more than 10% and seemed to be heading down south until it reversed monday and tuesday and now up by more than 10% from its lows. BEL held at 5.02 and now at 5.51 while LR at 9.82 3 days ago now at 11.1. I’ve been wanting to buy but I always say I don’t know where it is heading down and just buy it when it turns. it did for 2 days which gives me a fair chance yet still i did not pull the trigger and now, I just don’t feel comfortable chasing prices. It’s taking too much risk for very little return (in my opinion). Well, I might just not touch these 2 unless.. I get out of control.

LC, MA, PX were all on voluntary suspension yesterday, concerning a deal they have to ink out; a joint venture on the Kalayaan mining site. It’s make or break for these 3. As they resumed trading today, it dropped for the first 5 mins and seemed to go down the drain but low and behold, they ended up as top gainers and closing at the highs. I guess a lot of people got caught on this one, but it surely paid the real investors than traders… if there are. As for me, I’m not even touching these stocks. Sort of got an allergy on them sometime ago, burning myself twice in the trading, and hopeful that it will heal with another medication, not the same thing.

FLI MEG MPI: i just find myself overloading on these 3 stocks, it just makes me comfortable staying on them. More so they are lagging the market already so big drops in the index doesn’t equate to a proportionate drop on them. Yes, my investments are making money but looking at the bigger picture, I may be missing on a few things as there are a lot of bigger gains to be made in other stocks, and other industries. I should be reviewing more stocks and make a diversified radar covering the good stocks on each sector and knowing the real targets.

Lastly, my simple goal is to beat the index. I’m just not so sure if I’m looking at the right opponent. 10% return this month will make me happy; but I’m easy to please, so property stocks please make me happier. =)

Its been a while since I’ve been writing consistently in this blog. Thing is, i don’t really know what to put in. The market just kinda throw me off in terms of understanding how it works, moves, and emotionalize the numbers. Amazing as it is, that is exactly the beauty of the market. No one knows for sure where it is heading.. andif you think you do, the market will humble you! =)

Now the Psei is again at 4,300 in just a few days, thanks to the push in TEL. Last week witnessed the biggest drop in the recent run up, losing 100 points week-on-week, that removed all the gains made in the last 15 trading days. Until the TEL-JGS-DGTL deal sort of revived and pulled the market even faster upward than downward, breaking the downtrend. looking back, this deal actually catapulted the market to the uptrend and everyone followed suit. Its interesting to see where this is really heading, the biggest market- moving deal I’ve seen so far.

I’ve been bullish once on the property sector until one respected broker told me how interest rates affect a property company’s profits. Hence i tend to stay away form them, MEG FLI ALI, and stick with other stocks. However, after the 1st rate ike, these stocks suddenly posted the biggest capital gains and even stronger. I use to be a believer. And so now, in a corrective phase, I’ve been starting to accumulate in these stocks with higher prices yet same targets. I just can’t miss another good bull run (in my opinion) like last year, where I ended up buying less profitable companies and less gains. I have to join the ride at whatever point I think i can. And yes, this is after the 2nd rate hike of 25 basis points. Long 1 year position target is 25-30% gain on these issues. Short term? actually, same. SO should I get to this level of gains, I sure hope to do the right thing.

What am i buying now? Short term I don’t really know. LR or BEL? they have been dropping fast last week until its gains today. Can speculation support such price levels, let’s see. Mining company GEO gained the limelight, now over 40% up in a few days at .78 thanks to the deal of 1 peso per share to a foreign group. Can it really reach that price? well, LC sold a 5% stake to Philex at .66 and is now at .86. WHY? I don’t know. And the show goes on, take a ride if you want or just don’t bother at all. If you feel good where you are, just be there! Stay! =)

Leveraging is one of the smartest things ever created, and have made the financial world a more enticing and profitable. Yet it also made it more complicated and costs millions of people to its worst effect of recession in 2008. When is the best use of it? One cannot tell but it fits certain trading systems, both in stocks and in forex, to be possitively effective. 

One thing thou, its not about target price. Its about target day of selling, at whatever price. One account i know trades on a leverage factor of 10-15x (wild, hehe) and managed to make 90% return in its 1st month. Not bad at all when the market barely did less than 10%. On its second month however, it loss 55% and ended on all cash position. That’s because it had to be liquidated at any price that day. It will be a fresh new battle and interesting to see if It can do 100% this time around just to recover the losses… and hopefully profit from there. It’s all about timing the run up and control on the drop. And executing at the plan. Although it loss, its still a good thing that it survived and otherwise deadly pit. 

“If you don’t bet, you can’t win. If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.”

Boight SCC at 229, sold it at 218 missing the high of 224. Cash div of 10 pesos in MAY. Bought CPM (basura) at 2.2 t sell it at the same price, with the high of 2.30 and now back at that level.

NEW GAME! =)

I’ve been inconsistently writing in my blog for the last two months. I’m actually making myself busy in another business which is more controlled than this one. And yes, if I make more money I can invest more and lesser attachment on the volatility of the market. After all, the main goal is not just capital gains but build up assets- such as stocks.

Just after 2 weeks the market is now at 4,300 and brings the index to positive territory. Its a whole new ball game and you can see the market go up and up without looking back for the next few months (3-4) and make new highs. good thing about this, even your entry price is not the best, chances are it will be a good price as everything just tend to go higher and dips or corrections are seen as buying opportunities. I’m not exactly good trading uptrends, so best to stay invested and wait for the long term until the whole trend changes. that’s waht I do for now… =)

The market has found a new life. As I enter the trading floor this morning, people are smiling and thinking which stocks would be the top picks for the week, how far can the index still go, which ones deserves some rest or correction and a lot more. I guess, with this kind of optimism, the market psyche that lingers around makes people buy and hold until their stocks make some profits. Those who also held on to their shares at the start of the year can now look at their portfolios and see what strategy to make which promotes more market activity and therefore more trades, money, and volatility. Just to note, the money being currency means “it has value with movement and nothing if still”. The point is, if money is like electric currents, staying in one place doesn’t make it any useful and therefore no value.

I’m starting to think the market is a bit high from 3800 and deserves a correction from here on and stay just above 4000-4050. Individually, I would be selling stocks that grew by 20% or more as it is way beyond the market, and find stocks that can probably go higher at a faster pace, or buy back the stock if it retraces enough that leads to better returns than just staying long in the position. I’m looking at selling MPI and ICT at current levels. Let’s see if I’m right at this. 

LR and CYbr, I just don’t know. i just don’t want these 2 stocks take my whole attention and I forget everything else. Traders of these 2, good luck. =)

The market started strong and went to a high of 40 points before retracing those gains and ending with a minimal 6 point gain, thanks the gains of JFC and EDC. Now, we are at the same level where we started this year. The market seems to love this level as it stayed close for the day. the big question is where are we heading now? I would say the market is stronger now, emotionally and psychologically. I’m not sure if it is fundamentally strong due to rising oil and commodity prices, rising inflation, and obviously much expensive prices of stocks. But on the technical perspective, looking back, we came from a peak of 4400 2 months before down-trending to January level, and now we came from a bottom of 3650 level up-trending to (no one knows where)… topless? I’m having a hard time buying at this kind of market but I hope I learned my lessons on how to ride Bull markets and maximize gains. But i would say at this point, big and small corrections are opportunities to buy and get in and profit for the long term.

All the Lopez stocks are moving up except the holding company that bears their name. What could it mean? I’m betting it should catch up but laws of diversification tells me to find other stocks. So there… I’ll try the one most closely related to Pangilinan (MPI). On this one, Buy what he plans to buy, sell the one he’s using to buy.

Lastly, lesson for the day, “sa dyaryo isa lang ang tama… petsa!” =)